Understanding the Covid Variant Model

This blog is to offer a brief understanding of the chaotic dynamic of variants growth.

You may already know some epidemic models, and maths like exponential growth etc. However, these models are basically single variant models that do not consider differences between variants as well as the change of immunity backgrounds, and will easily give you bad conclusions as they’re over-simplified for covid-19.
These bad conclusions may cause confusions and eventually lead you to believe in the other side– A wrong claim of “immunity debt”, or “do nothing and get infected is the best idea”, which is much more dangerous than believing in an over-simplified model. These “immunity debt” pro-infection theories may eventually consume your health and lives.

In this blog, I’m gonna introduce more accurate ways to describe and understand the spread of variants. The top priority is to drive you away from the most dangerous “immunity debt” theory, also the analysis may offer some light for pandemic near and long-term outcome prediction.

So let’s start.

Chapter 1 Stochatistic Differential Equations