转载:随笔一则

I have no idea if this is really part of the training in some programs, but it *seems like* they’re taught to keep the public calm until whatever virus it is inevitably evolves to become less virulent and enough people become infected for us to achieve herd immunity.

Keep calm everyone. All fires burn themselves out eventually.

To be clear, I think many experts really do believe that viruses will become benign and that herd immunity will kick in once everyone has been infected and/or vaccinated. The problem is the inability to question these beliefs in the face of so much evidence to the contrary.

It’s a well known phenomenon. People have a world view with certain preconceptions and assumptions, and it is very difficult to modify those. Contrary evidence gets dismissed or is somehow rationalized to fit into the worldview, rather than challenging the worldview.

It happens with things as simple and demonstrable as laws of motion. Many people think like Aristotle rather than like Newton, and even if you show them they’re wrong, they rationalize their incorrect folk understanding of physics.

Similarly, folk heredity and evolution are much more Lamarckian than Darwinian, and it’s very, very difficult to get people to change that.

我不知道这是否真的是一些项目培训的一部分,但他们似乎被教导要让公众保持冷静,直到无论是什么病毒,都”不可避免地会变得毒性更小“,有足够多的人被感染,我们才能实现群体免疫。

大家保持冷静。所有的火最终都会自行熄灭。

需要明确的是,我认为许多专家确实相信,一旦每个人都被感染和/或接种了疫苗,病毒就会变得良性,群体免疫就会发挥作用。问题是,面对如此多相反的证据,我们却无法质疑这些信仰。

这是一个众所周知的现象。人们的世界观带有某些先入为主的观念和假设,很难改变这些观念和假设。相反的证据会被驳回,或者以某种方式被合理化,以适应世界观,而不是挑战世界观。

它发生在像运动定律这样简单而明显的事情上。许多人的想法像亚里士多德而不是牛顿,即使你向他们证明他们错了,他们也会合理化他们对物理学的不正确理解。

同样,民间对遗传和进化的理解更像是拉马克式的,而不是达尔文式的,很难让人们改变这一点。

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